Investing with Insight

At Appleton, we value active engagement and interaction with financial advisors and clients. Investing with insight helps us meet client objectives. And by sharing our economic and market perspectives, we foster deeper relationships. Here’s what we’re talking about this month.

The Case for 2024 Rate Cuts: Growth Is No Reason Not to Cut

“After months of discussions about how deeply the FOMC would cut rates in 2024, nothing speaks to the rapid shift in market sentiment better than the number of questions we’ve fielded recently about why the Fed should cut rates at all this year…”

Review and Outlook

"February’s biggest story was a series of unexpectedly hot inflation reports sharply reducing market expectations for 2024 Fed rate cuts. Beneath the surface, the month was a Russian doll of nested contradictions, not the least of which being that while we welcome this repricing (the markets now closely align with our expectations for 2-3 cuts before year-end)..."
"The most important moment of the Federal Reserve meeting on January 31st was Powell’s response to the final question about the risks posed by economic strength. He indicated in no uncertain terms that the Fed was no longer very concerned about strong consumption or growth, since inflation had continued to fall the entire second half of the year despite a fast-growing economy..."
"December brought renewed talk of a Fed “pivot,” and growing expectations for Fed Funds rate cuts met only token resistance from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell..."

Economic and Market
Commentary

"After months of discussions about how deeply the FOMC would cut rates in 2024, nothing speaks to the rapid shift in market sentiment better than the number of questions we’ve fielded recently about why the Fed should cut rates at all this year..."
"One of the unexpected challenges of managing fixed income portfolios is how much of the capital markets have an equity bias. From regulatory guidance to risk measurement conventions, much of the framework of the markets we trade in appears to have been written primarily with equities in mind..."

Quarterly Perspectives

Q4
"The recent passing of legendary investor Charlie Munger has prompted many prominent investors to publicly reflect upon his wisdom. The human element was often central to Munger’s insights concerning investment decision-making, and he was a pioneer in the field of behavioral finance."
Q3
“Traffic is an inevitable part of urban American life as those of us who frequent highways in Greater Boston or most other metropolitan areas know all too well. Apologies for raising an irritating topic, but we feel there are useful parallels to be drawn between driving and investment decision-making.”
Q2
“Atisa Dipamkara, a revered 11th century Buddhist philosopher, once said, “The greatest wisdom is seeing through appearances.” His insight into looking beyond first impressions resonates in today’s investment world. While diversification has long been touted as a means of mitigating risk, we recognize that it is far from solely determined by the number of securities held in an index or portfolio.”

Video Briefs

The Case for Adding Duration – November 2023

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Municipal Market Conditions and Portfolio Strategy – June 2023

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Value Opportunities in a Challenging Environment – October 2022

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