Review and
Outlook
February 2019
“We discussed California’s pending leadership transition in June 2018 (“California: Credit Reflections as a New Era Approaches”) and it is now upon us with Governor Newsom releasing his first budget proposal. The $209 billion spending plan reflects fiscal restraint with 3% projected revenue growth…but also includes an expansion of funding into several “one time” programs that could introduce recurring obligations…”
Learn MoreJanuary 2019
“With Congress unable to pass a bill with Trump’s desired $5.6B for a border wall, and with the President currently refusing to back down, some creativity may be required to pass a spending bill. . . Resolution (to the shutdown) is important to settling highly volatile markets, as the current impasse will shave 0.1% off of GDP every two weeks according to the Council of Economic Advisors, while also dampening appetite for risk assets…”
Learn MoreDecember 2018
“With nominal yields rising, the 10-Yr AAA muni ended November at 2.51% vs. 1.98% at the beginning of 2018. With increased 2019 issuance likely, we anticipate good opportunities to put assets to work. We also see an environment conducive to moving up in credit quality…”
Learn MoreNovember 2018
“The Journal emphasized that the dramatic call (2010 Meredith Whitney muni market warning) was not incorrect, just early, and that municipal bond investors “should heed warning”. We disagree . . . Our view is supported by several important metrics…”
Learn MoreEconomic and
Market Commentary
01.17.2019
Opportunity Zones: An Overlooked Impetus for Municipal Credit Enhancement
“As capital flows into Opportunity Zones, we are actively looking for localities with the best prospects … Weeding through Opportunity Zone tracts early in their evolution offers our research team an ability to identify municipal issuers with overlooked future credit prospects.”
Learn More11.20.2018
Special Tax Bonds:
Scrutinize Parents, Not Just Their Offspring
“Sometimes it’s prudent to dig more deeply, whether evaluating the risk of a child’s credit application, or a special purpose bond offering…Lending to the “child” without scrutiny of the “parent” is imprudent in our view…”
Learn More06.30.2018
Duration Decision-Making:
Opportunities and Considerations
“Despite 10Yr Treasuries already more than doubling off their 2016 lows, many foresee continued upward pressure over time should the expansion remain intact. . . “
Learn More06.15.2018
California: Credit Reflections
as a New Era Approaches
“As California Governor Jerry Brown winds down his last term, we look back at where the State stood prior to his most recent election in 2010. Since that time, California has turned a $25 billion deficit at the depths of the Great Recession . . . “
Learn MoreQuarterly
Perspectives
Q4 2018
High Drama in Washington:
Policy Heroines or Unfolding Greek Tragedy?
“Outside of a cottage industry of Fed watchers, people do not wait with bated breath for Fed speeches and Policy Minutes releases. Accepting this reality, today’s policy drama may best be envisioned as a plot summary to a gritty film noir drama…”
Learn MoreQ3 2018
A Long Winning Season Forges Ahead
“Hall of Fame catcher and noted baseball sage Yogi Berra famously quipped, ‘It ain’t over till it’s over.’ His aphorism is usually taken as a never-say-die rallying cry for underdogs and longshots, but it’s also good advice when you’re riding the highs of a winning streak…”
Learn MoreQ2 2018
Reading Markets and Emotions
“While investment markets, unlike novels, have no natural beginning or end, we feel clear parallels can be drawn, most notably the importance of focusing on the broader narrative rather than whatever short-term story is currently in vogue. . . “
Learn More