Review and

October 2018

“As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds Rate to a range of 2-2.25% in September and dropped “accommodative” from their assessment of monetary policy. The Fed’s “dot plot” shows 12 of the 16 officials favor a fourth hike in 2018…”

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September 2018

“The economic picture continues to diverge at home and abroad. Domestically, the primary consumer confidence reading surged to 133.4, the highest level in 18 years. This is an exceptionally strong number that supports an expectation of sustained spending in a demand-driven US economy…”

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August 2018

“A sea of red ink at the Federal level is exacerbating US  Treasury yield curve fears. As we move into the second half of 2018, the level of outstanding marketable US Treasury debt has climbed to a record level of $15.566 trillion, more than $1 trillion greater than the Treasury had outstanding as recently as the end of 2017…”

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July 2018

“Favorable US economic conditions were once again unsettled in June by a resurgence of long-simmering trade tensions and the growing risk of a full-blown trade war. After steel and aluminum tariffs went into effect on June 1st, President Trump announced $50 billion in additional Chinese
tariffs. . . “

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Economic and
Market Commentary


Duration Decision-Making:
Opportunities and Considerations

“Despite 10Yr Treasuries already more than doubling off their 2016 lows, many foresee continued upward pressure over time should the expansion remain intact. . . “

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California: Credit Reflections
as a New Era Approaches

“As California Governor Jerry Brown winds down his last term, we look back at where the State stood prior to his most recent election in 2010. Since that time, California has turned a $25 billion deficit at the depths of the Great Recession . . . “

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Munis, Rates & Equity Volatility

“The first quarter of 2018 ended a period of unusual tranquility in the capital markets. History tells us that volatility, while unsettling, is the norm, not an aberration. . . “

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Optimizing Short-Term Investment Assets

“When building high net worth client portfolios, a great deal of attention is paid to asset allocation and manager selection. These decisions are often supported by risk-return frameworks aimed at maximizing portfolio efficiency. . . “

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Q3 2018

A Long Winning Season Forges Ahead

“Hall of Fame catcher and noted baseball sage Yogi Berra famously quipped, ‘It ain’t over till it’s over.’ His aphorism is usually taken as a never-say-die rallying cry for underdogs and longshots, but it’s also good advice when you’re riding the highs of a winning streak…”

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Q2 2018

Reading Markets and Emotions

“While investment markets, unlike novels, have no natural beginning or end, we feel clear parallels can be drawn, most notably the importance of focusing on the broader narrative rather than whatever short-term story is currently in vogue. . . “

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