Review and
Outlook

November 2018

“The Journal emphasized that the dramatic call (2010 Meredith Whitney muni market warning) was not incorrect, just early, and that municipal bond investors “should heed warning”.  We disagree . . . Our view is supported by several important metrics.”

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October 2018

“As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds Rate to a range of 2-2.25% in September and dropped “accommodative” from their assessment of monetary policy. The Fed’s “dot plot” shows 12 of the 16 officials favor a fourth hike in 2018…”

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September 2018

“The economic picture continues to diverge at home and abroad. Domestically, the primary consumer confidence reading surged to 133.4, the highest level in 18 years. This is an exceptionally strong number that supports an expectation of sustained spending in a demand-driven US economy…”

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August 2018

“A sea of red ink at the Federal level is exacerbating US  Treasury yield curve fears. As we move into the second half of 2018, the level of outstanding marketable US Treasury debt has climbed to a record level of $15.566 trillion, more than $1 trillion greater than the Treasury had outstanding as recently as the end of 2017…”

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Economic and
Market Commentary

11.20.2018

Special Tax Bonds:
Scrutinize Parents, Not Just Their Offspring

“Sometimes it’s prudent to dig more deeply, whether evaluating the risk of a child’s credit application, or a special purpose bond offering…Lending to the “child” without scrutiny of the “parent” is imprudent in our view.”

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06.30.2018

Duration Decision-Making:
Opportunities and Considerations

“Despite 10Yr Treasuries already more than doubling off their 2016 lows, many foresee continued upward pressure over time should the expansion remain intact. . . “

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06.15.2018

California: Credit Reflections
as a New Era Approaches

“As California Governor Jerry Brown winds down his last term, we look back at where the State stood prior to his most recent election in 2010. Since that time, California has turned a $25 billion deficit at the depths of the Great Recession . . . “

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04.30.2018

Munis, Rates & Equity Volatility

“The first quarter of 2018 ended a period of unusual tranquility in the capital markets. History tells us that volatility, while unsettling, is the norm, not an aberration. . . “

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Quarterly
Perspectives

Q3 2018

A Long Winning Season Forges Ahead

“Hall of Fame catcher and noted baseball sage Yogi Berra famously quipped, ‘It ain’t over till it’s over.’ His aphorism is usually taken as a never-say-die rallying cry for underdogs and longshots, but it’s also good advice when you’re riding the highs of a winning streak…”

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Q2 2018

Reading Markets and Emotions

“While investment markets, unlike novels, have no natural beginning or end, we feel clear parallels can be drawn, most notably the importance of focusing on the broader narrative rather than whatever short-term story is currently in vogue. . . “

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