Review and Outlook

"Rather than harbinger of weakness to come, we found the revised employment reports more consistent with the Fed’s projections of a “soft landing...”

"February’s biggest story was a series of unexpectedly hot inflation reports sharply reducing market expectations for 2024 Fed rate cuts. Beneath the surface, the month was a Russian doll of nested contradictions, not the least of which being that while we welcome this repricing (the markets now closely align with our expectations for 2-3 cuts before year-end)..."

"The most important moment of the Federal Reserve meeting on January 31st was Powell’s response to the final question about the risks posed by economic strength. He indicated in no uncertain terms that the Fed was no longer very concerned about strong consumption or growth, since inflation had continued to fall the entire second half of the year despite a fast-growing economy..."

"December brought renewed talk of a Fed “pivot,” and growing expectations for Fed Funds rate cuts met only token resistance from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell..."

"Last month we flagged October’s Beige Book as a potential inflection point in economic activity, with the summer’s gangbuster’s growth seemingly slowing to a crawl in late September."

“As the end of the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle approaches, the Fed Funds Rate has taken a backseat to other factors in explaining longer dated yields.”

“McCarthy failed a no-confidence vote on Tuesday evening. It remains to be seen who will replace McCarthy and the process has the potential to significantly delay the 2024 budget and increases the chances of a November shutdown.”

“The markets expected Powell’s Jackson Hole speech to represent a major policy shift, akin to 2022’s “steely resolve to beat inflation.” They were disappointed; Powell’s remarks were neutral enough that both hawks and doves came away believing he was in their camp.”

"While one month does not make a trend, July was a very good one for US economic releases and the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation."

"While the June 14th Fed meeting gave us the “hawkish pause” the market was anticipating, investors severely underestimated the degree of hawkishness the Fed delivered."